1. Isendlalelo Somnotho Omkhulu
Ukukhula komnotho—ikakhulukazi ezindaweni ezithengiswayo, ingqalasizinda, nokukhiqiza—kuchaza isidingo sensimbi. I-GDP eqinile (eqiniswe ukusetshenziswa kwengqalasizinda) isekela ukusetshenziswa, kuyilapho umkhakha wezakhiwo obuthaka noma ukwehla komnotho emhlabeni wonke kwenza amandla entengo abe buthaka.
2. I-Supply-Demand Dynamics
Ukunikezwa: Imisebenzi yokugaya (ukusetshenziswa kwesithando somlilo/isithando sikagesi) kanye nokusikwa kokukhiqiza (isb., ama-curbs ensimbi engahluziwe) kuba nomthelela oqondile ebhalansi yemakethe. Amaleveli e-inventory aphansi (isb, ukwehla okungu-30–40% unyaka nonyaka esitokweni se-rebar) akhuphula ukuguquguquka kwentengo.
Isidingo: Ukwehla kwezinkathi ezithile zonyaka (amagagasi okushisa, izimvula ezinamandla) kuthuntubeza umsebenzi wokwakha, kodwa ukugqugquzelwa kwenqubomgomo (isb., ukuncishiswa kwesakhiwo) kungase kuqalise ukuphinda kufakwe isitoko okwesikhashana. Amandla okuthumela ngaphandle (isb., ukuthunyelwa kwe-rebar okukhulayo ku-H1 2025) kuqeda ukunikezwa kwasekhaya kodwa kubhekene nezingozi zokungqubuzana kwezohwebo.
3. Ukudlula Kwezindleko
Izinto zokusetshenziswa (insimbi, amalahle okuphekela) yizona ezilawula izindleko zokugaya. Ukuphindaphindeka kwamalahle okubhaka (phakathi kokulahleka kwezimayini kanye nemikhawulo yokuphepha) noma ukutholwa kwe-iron ore okuqhutshwa yi-inventory kusekela amanani ensimbi, kuyilapho impahla eluhlaza iwa (isb., ukucwila ngamalahle angama-57% ku-H1 2025) kubangela ingcindezi eya phansi.
4. Ukungenelela Kwenqubomgomo
Izinqubomgomo zilawula ukuhlinzekwa kwempahla (isb., izilawuli ezikhishwayo, imikhawulo yokuthumela ngaphandle) kanye nesidingo (isb., ukusheshiswa kwebhondi yengqalasizinda, ukuxegiswa kwezakhiwo). Ukushintsha kwenqubomgomo okungazelelwe—okushukumisayo noma okukhawulelayo—kudala ukuguquguquka.
5. Imizwa Yomhlaba kanye Nezimakethe
Ukuhwebelana kwamazwe ngamazwe (isb., ubungozi bokulwa nokulahlwa) kanye nemijikelezo yempahla (itshe lensimbi elenziwe ngedola) kuxhumanisa amanani asekhaya nezimakethe zomhlaba. Ukuma kwemakethe ye-futures kanye "negebe lokulindela" (inqubomgomo ngokumelene neqiniso) kukhulisa ukuguquguquka kwentengo.
6. Izingozi Zesikhathi Nezemvelo
Isimo sezulu esibi kakhulu (ukushisa, izivunguvungu) siphazamisa ukwakhiwa, kuyilapho izithiyo zezinhlelo zibangela ukungqubuzana kwezidingo zesifunda, okubhebhethekisa ukuguquguquka kwamanani esikhathi esifushane.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Jul-01-2025
